Cool the Recession Talk (Opinion)

Cool the Recession Talk (Opinion)

The US economy has been growing since early 2009, making the current recovery the longest on record. But recent yield-curve inversions, stock market gyrations and trade war tweets have created conditions that might foretell, if not hasten, the next recession. So too has politically-tinged talk of economic weakness designed to weigh on the minds of voters, according to James Piereson, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Respected forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank to the IMF anticipate slow but positive growth for the nation’s economy – about 2%, in line with annual averages over the past decade. “Recessions typically occur in settings of rapid economic growth and rising interest rates, combined with overly bullish forecasts for stocks and business profits,” Piereson writes. “That’s not the situation today.”

 

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